A couple of weeks ago, FIFA released a 23-man short list of nominees for this year's Ballon d'Or, FIFA's official Player of the Year award. The three finalists will be announced Nov. 29, with the award ceremony itself taking place in January. But with the votes being cast this month, it's as good a time as any to speculate about the results.
It's no secret that once again, it's a two-horse race between Argentine maestro Lionel Messi and Portuguese superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. As much as I'm sure it's a great honor to be shortlisted for the award, the other 21 contenders can realistically only hope for third place. That's right: I'm not even allowing them to dream about winning. That's how much of a gap there is between them and Messi and Ronaldo. Anyone who believes otherwise - such as 1990 winner Lothar Matthaus - is a non-conformist hipster pundit in my book. The former German captain puts forward Spaniards Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta as favorites, citing their international success - or rather Messi and Ronaldo's lack thereof - as the chief reason for his picks.
But the problem with his argument is that international play is a non-factor this time around. By carrying their consistent regular season form into this summer's European Championships, there is no doubt that Xavi and Iniesta played pivotal roles in Spain's tournament triumph. That, however, doesn't give the pair any sort of real advantage. Ronaldo finally had a breakout performance in a national kit in the same tournament, and Messi wasn't even competing in the championships. And in any case, the Euros aren't capable of the same level of influence as the World Cup - see 2006 Ballon d'Or winner Fabio Cannavaro.
It's interesting to note that Messi was able to fend off a similar Spaniard challenge in 2009 to win his first of three consecutive Ballon d'Or awards. And this was right on the heels of a Spanish World Cup triumph in which Xavi and Iniesta featured prominently. So as long as New York continues to vote blue, you can expect history to repeat itself here.
But with seven Spaniards on the shortlist, don't be surprised if we find a member of the current European and World Champion national team in the final three.
With all that dealt with, let's move onto the granddaddy of all questions: Messi or Ronaldo? Thankfully I don't have to try (and fail) to conclude who the better player is - just to see who had the better year. The stats are very telling in that they accurately illustrate the monster years both players had in 2012 without significantly tilting the argument either way.
Messi's and Ronaldo's 50 and 46 season goals, respectively, are equally ridiculous. Leo's lead in assists is even thinner, as the Barcelona man edged out his Real Madrid rival 15 to 12.
Since the stats don't help us resolve the problem, we have to rely on the intangibles to determine who deserves to be crowned Player of the Year. And determining what each factor means for the larger debate isn't exactly a science, so everyone is bound to have a different take on things.
For example, it can be said that Messi is more of a team player than Ronaldo. Granted, both players possess an almost infinite set of individual skill and trickery, but I'd wager that you would find Lionel making a pass in a certain situation more often than you would Cristiano. Now, one way of looking at this is saying that Messi is more reliant on his Barcelona teammates, whereas Ronaldo can get the job done on his own. On the flip side - and this is my preferred take on this particular analysis - is that a player like Messi is able to think for the team's cause rather than for his own, and that's the kind of player you would want in your lineup. After all, even superstars have to contribute to a team of 11. It's the fact that they're good at it that makes them superstars.
Similarly, there's a lot of talk about whether the players are carrying their respective teams or simply benefiting from higher quality players around them, and whether that affects their public perception. Personally, I feel that whatever impact a stronger team has on individual performance, it's nullified by the impact a single player has on their teammates. In other words, if Messi indeed has a better team around him, it's his own prowess that makes them look better. So it's a bit of a moot point.
But I will concede that while it's generally accepted that Xavi, Iniesta and Messi form the core of the Barca attack, it's hard to imagine a formidable Real lineup when it's missing number seven. Messi is an integral cog in Barca's machine, whereas Ronaldo is Real's machine.
But what Messi has going for him is the simple fact that he's won the Ballon d'Or the past three years, which means that in the voters' eyes, he's been better than Ronaldo since 2010. And Ronaldo has not been able to bridge the gap. Both players have improved significantly since then but at a relatively even level. The only thing that has really changed is the league title Ronaldo's Real Madrid won La Liga last season. Despite that, I believe Leo is on track for another Golden Ball.
So come late November, expect to see Messi and Ronaldo among the finalists. I'll go out on a limb and say that Andres Iniesta will round out the final trio, but at least we won't have to wait for Florida to weigh in.
