The other day, when watching an episode of "24," I totally predicted what was going to happen before the hour was over. I can't explain it. It's as if Jack Bauer was in my head, whispering sweet nothings and telling me exactly how he was going to save the world. As the digital clock on the screen ticked to 5 p.m., I thought, "Hey, if I can predict what happens in '24,' I bet I can foretell the outcomes of the 2007 baseball season!" So, here's how the American League will shape up.
AL East: Yanks take 10th straight division titleThe Red Sox will put up a fight, boasting an improved rotation and a healthy Manny Ramirez, but they'll have to settle for a wild card berth. The 2007 New York Yankees may be one of the best teams ever assembled. They have a former All Star at every position except for first base, where they have gold-glover Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yanks rotation is well-rounded and powerful - when Japanese 2006 strikeout king Kei Igawa is your No. 4 starter, you're in good shape. Oh, and they still have the best closer of all time in Mariano Rivera. New York will win 100 games for the first time since 2004.
The exciting story in the AL East will be the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who will finally have their first .500 season. With one of the best outfields in baseball in Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli and Delmon Young and a healthy Scott Kazmir leading the rotation, the D-Rays will leapfrog the Toronto Blue Jays late in the season and take third place in the AL East. Look for crucial breakout seasons from SP James Shields, OF Young and the talented Japanese 3B Akinori Iwamura.
AL Central: Detroit Tigers edge the ChiSoxThe Tigers will continue to lack star power, but they will take their first division title since 1987. Every other AL Central team has some big-name stars: The Indians boast Travis Hafner, the White Sox have Jermaine Dye, the Twins have Johan Santana and even the Kansas City Royals are introducing slugger Alex Gordon. The Tigers, with no notable star, have the most complete and competent team in the division. They led all of baseball in 2006 with a team ERA of 4.17, and their staff will be even better in '07.
Joel Zumaya, the 22 year old with the 102-mile-per-hour fastball, will have the closer role by mid-season. Jeremy Bonderman will be considered for the AL Cy Young. The White Sox will stay in the division race until a significant August fade. Chicago has a serviceable team, and SP Javier Vazquez will finally reclaim his ace status, but inevitable production declines from Dye, 3B Joe Crede (he will not hit 30 HRs again) and 36-year-old DH Jim Thome will doom the punchless offense.
And until the Kansas City Royals have the sense to give SP Brandon Duckworth a starting job, they'll continue to lurk in last place. Duckworth's name alone would double the attendance at Kauffman Stadium.
AL West: Angels re-capture the throneThe Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (ugh, I still hate saying that) boast several ingredients that will lead to a division-leading, 95-win season. Their bullpen remains terrific - closer Frankie Rodriguez had a 1.73 ERA in 2006, while Scott Shields (2.87 ERA) and Justin Speier (2.98 ERA), who replaces the departed Brandon Donnelly, will provide excellent middle relief. Their offense will be greatly improved now that 2B Howie Kendrick has a starting job. He hit .361 in the minors and is tearing it up this spring. He'll take home some batting titles before his career is over.
The Angels' rotation is also the best in the division by far. A full season from 24-year-old Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana's continued improvement and the emergence of John Lackey as a legitimate ace all add up to a terrific 2007. The main reason the Angels will make the playoffs is because the rest of their division is terrible. The Oakland A's won the division last year largely because of Frank Thomas, who is now a Blue Jay, and his amazing comeback season. They will sorely miss his production in 2007 - their best remaining hitter, OF Nick Swisher, hit .254 last year. The A's will regress to a .500 ballclub.
The Texas Rangers still have a powerhouse offense - their infield of Mark Teixeira, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Hank Blalock is one of the most productive in the game - but their rotation looks like it was assembled in the dark. Any pitching staff that's counting on Robinson Tejeda and John Koronka is in trouble. And over in Seattle, the Mariners still have no offense.
American League Division Series: New York beats Detroit, 3-0Thirsty for revenge from last year, the Yanks will sweep the Tigers out of the playoffs with ease. Alex Rodriguez will have his first successful postseason with the Yanks, hitting a couple of clutch homers and leading New York into the championship series.
American League Division Series: Boston beats Los Angeles, 3-2The Angels have clutch performers on their team (e.g. Vladimir Guerrero, K-Rod), but their downfall will be the massive power of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Also, Curt Schilling has a little postseason magic left in him.
American League Championship Series: New York beats Boston, 4-2The two best teams in the American League will battle for the pennant for the first time since 2004. With Andy Pettitte back in the fold, the Yanks will evoke their dormant playoff passion and beat Beantown for the American League crown.
Who will the New York Yankees play in the 2007 World Series? My National League forecast is coming up next week, and it will include the 2007 champion.
Ellis Rochelson' 09 enjoys hitting ctrl-option-apple-8 on his Mac.
