As much as it may fly in the face of sports lexicon, I have a problem with the use of the Cinderella analogy. I can appreciate the idea that a previously unheard-of team can be transformed into the belle of the ball, but I think the word is misused.
Maybe it is just my secret love for classic Disney movies, but if you are going to draw a comparison between sports and pop culture, it is only fair for all the parallels to be accounted for. Unlike Cinderella, who winds up with the prince in the end, all those small-time schools go straight home after the clock strikes midnight (with the exception of George Mason last year). Cinderella goes from rags to riches and stays rich. The NCAA Cinderellas, unfortunately, go back to rags.
Thus, I am suggesting a new metaphor for all those small-time programs that pop up for the first few rounds every March - termites. It may not have the aesthetic appeal as our beloved Cinderella, but it is a more accurate descriptor. Think about it: they appear when unsuspecting conference powerhouses have started to weaken and wreak havoc on any such teams lacking a firm foundation. But when they come up against that badass, exterminator-of-a-team that is built to withstand March Madness, the extermination is quick and one-sided.
Am I really expecting "Tourney Termites" to replace Cinderella as the most commonly used sports phrase in the NCAA tournament? Well, I am a realist, so I will say no. But if and when you see a small but devastating lower seed pick apart the foundation of a weak higher seed, just consider that it might be work that is too destructive for someone as dainty as Cinderella.
Oh, how I hate Ohio State
My previous contempt for the Buckeyes notwithstanding - and I realize that this is a fine line to cross with something as objective as bracketology - I feel they are the weakest of the No. 1 seeds and do not see them getting past the Sweet 16. I grudgingly acknowledge that Greg Oden had a beastly Big Ten tournament and is starting to peak at the right time, but I am not sold on the success that Ohio State had against a very mediocre conference schedule. For those who point to its two wins against Wisconsin, I argue the Badgers are not that good. Most important is the fact that the Buckeyes lack the offensive firepower that most championship teams display. With Oden and the rest of the Thad Five, they should be averaging at least 70 points per game and yet they struggle to get to 60 a fair amount of the time. If you are looking for that token No. 1 seed that is overrated, look no further than Columbus.
My pick for the freshman who will shine the brightest
At this stage of the season - and considering the reputation he has already started to burnish - Kevin Durant is hardly a freshman, so I will exempt him from this category. But watching the thrilling Big 12 championship game between Kansas and Texas, I came away gushing about one particular first year - Sherron Collins of the Jayhawks. Not only is he a talented driver and shooter, he also has the testicular fortitude of a player that can contribute in March. On a team that is loaded with already-established talent, Collins is unafraid of handling the ball and taking big shots down the stretch - something that could prove extremely valuable to the Jayhawks, who despite all that talent, lack a true go-to player that wants to take over in gut-check situations. Don't be surprised to see Collins making the big plays down the stretch should Kansas get far - which it should - and be locked in a tight one.
My termites
I needed an excuse to break out my addition to the March Madness lexicon, so here are some of my upset picks:
For the token 12-over-5 pick, I pick Old Dominion over Butler. In my opinion, the Bulldogs have spent all season riding their preseason NIT victory to a high ranking and an overblown reputation. They looked less-than-stellar in their most recent loss to Wright State, and it's more exciting to watch paint dry than to watch their offense - a bad sign in a tournament where a good offense is a must. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is a strong representative from the Colonial Athletic Conference, which has proven to have its share of giant killers.
There have only been a handful of 14-over-3 victories in NCAA history, but this year I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Oral Roberts over Washington State in the first round of the East Regional. Caleb Green of the Golden Eagles is an incredibly dynamic scorer and has the potential to be one of those superstars of the first weekend that single-handedly wills his team to victory. And remember, this team has already proven capable of slaying the giants - Green had a monstrous 20-point, 11-rebound, 8-assist performance in Oral Roberts' 78-71 upset of Kansas earlier this season.
Whoever wins the UNLV-Georgia Tech game will beat Wisconsin in the second round. When it comes to Big Ten teams in the tournament, every five years or so, it has a couple teams go far in the bracket, but most of the time its teams sorely disappoint and are usually done by the end of the first weekend. The Badgers have not looked good recently, shooting nothing but bricks ever since their brief tenure as the No. 1 team in the land. Alando Tucker just looks tired, and he is not getting any help from his team. Just as teams are prone to peak at the right time, they can also start sliding at the worst time - and I think Wisconsin fits that description.
My picks
I like Florida, Kansas, Georgetown and Texas A&M to make it to Atlanta, with the Jayhawks beating the Hoyas for the title. Of all the Final Four teams, Kansas has the easiest road and will be in the best shape physically by the time the field is narrowed down to four. Plus, it is the hottest team entering the tournament this year, and in 2006 Florida showed the value of entering the tournament on a winning streak.
So get comfortable in your favorite chair and start working on your Gus Johnson impersonations - it's tourney time.
Chris Mahr '07 needs more than one hand to count the number of pools he has entered.
