Normally, it would be too early to talk about the 2008 election, but with a lame duck in the Oval Office, people's minds start to wander. Conventional wisdom tells us that both major parties already have their frontrunners - New York Sen. Hillary Clinton on the blue side, and a duel between Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the GOP nomination. While the prediction of Clinton winning the Democratic Party nomination will likely prove true, the prognosis for the Republican side is looking increasingly unlikely.
Neither McCain nor Giuliani are likely to win the Republican nomination. McCain, however - detested by roughly half of GOP voters according to several polls - stands even less of a chance than Giuliani. One must remember that, even today, two-thirds of Republicans still support President George W. Bush. After years of building his persona as the thorn in Bush's side, McCain's recent dalliances with the religious right - kissing Bush's ass, attending Christian cookouts - smacks of a pandering, flip-flopping politician.
On the other hand, the only thing most heartland Republicans know about Giuliani is that he was mayor of New York on Sept. 11, 2001, and that he's a law-and-order conservative. What they don't know is that he supports gay rights, the privacy of abortion and gun control. As 2008 approaches, the religious right will come after him harder than a tornado out of an Oklahoma thunderstorm. According to the latest Pew Center poll on religion and public life, a majority of Republicans believe that the Bible should trump the will of the people as a source of U.S. legislation. Any credible Republican candidate who challenges Giuliani would undoubtedly bring with him a legion of redemptionist volunteers, activist groups, editors and donors who would eagerly take up the cross against Giuliani.
The biggest advantage Giuliani currently enjoys is that a dark horse Republican challenger has failed to mount. Virginia Sen. George Allen, a former southern governor, was positioning himself as a natural successor to Bush but suddenly came down with a serious case of foot-in-mouth disease, letting slip a racist comment that now has been broadcast time and time again to Virginia voters, as well as the rest of the nation. This recent turn of events has narrowed the gap in Virginia polls, turning Allen's glorious reelection campaign into a dead-heat fight for survival in a red state that hasn't voted Democratic in a general election since 1964. That, needless to say, does not bode well for his bid for the White House, which - even if he narrowly wins his race - will have the momentum of a pile of wet horse manure.
Other right-wing Republicans dying to sink their teeth into Giuliani and McCain have found it equally difficult to gain traction. Kansas Sen. Sam 'Attack of the Clones' Brownback, whose legislative priority has been fighting dangerous advances in science, has positioned himself to the Christian right of Bush. He, however, seems to be too far out there for most Republicans to support, barring, of course, the immediate advent of the end times. Rounding out our list of capsized Republicans is the Good Doctor Bill Frist, who, despite torturing kittens in college, rose to the GOP Senate helm and has sunk his own campaign through his lackluster performance in that office.
Every week, a new name rises in the 2008 polls - Giuliani, then Gingrich, then Rice - as the Republican flock mills around uncomfortably in search of a shepherd. There is one man who could yet rally the party, whose candidacy wouldn't cause the divisions inherent to Giuliani or McCain. This mystery candidate has proven himself a better campaigner than either Brownback or Allen.
This man is a right-wing Republican governor who has been able to achieve popularity in a sunny swing state with more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even more importantly, he speaks fluent Spanish and has a Hispanic wife. He has instant name recognition across the country and a goofy grin that no redneck can resist.
Florida Governor Jeb Bush can't run, people say. His father and brother just took their turns in the Oval Office, and both of them lost the public's confidence. His own Presidential brother put it best: "Fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me... uh... you can't get fooled again."
But then again...
Let's take a closer look at this supposed handicap. Some commentators might decry prolonging the Bush political dynasty, but with Democrats ready to endorse Hillary Clinton in 2008, any criticism on this subject could just as easily be returned.
Jeb Bush would have the priceless advantage of a major electoral asset (his name) that he could portray as a handicap ("It's not my fault my father and brother were presidents, I wish people would judge me for who I am..."). He would enter center stage with style, as a savior come to rally his party when it was in disarray, leading it from the bowels of defeat into the jaws of victory. The media would be fascinated by the very possibility of another Bush presidency.
And, of course, there is nothing that would make Democrats squirm more than Bush III; and there's nothing that rallies the Republican base better than making the other side squirm. If Jeb has really decided not to run, Republicans better start convincing him to change his mind. And if he has secretly already decided he is running, the rest of us might as well prepare psychologically.
Michal Zapendowski '07 thinks Canada better start building a wall along its southern border.
